Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression

Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this, however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the ECME algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright c 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Reduced Intellectual Development in Children with Prenatal Lead Exposure

OBJECTIVE: Low-level postnatal lead exposure is associated with poor intellectual development in children, although effects of prenatal exposure are less well studied. We hypothesized that prenatal lead exposure would have a more powerful and lasting impact on child development than postnatal exposure. DESIGN: We used generalized linear mixed models with random intercept and slope to analyze the pattern of lead effect of the cohort from pregnancy through 10 years of age on child IQ from 6 to 10 years. We statistically evaluated dose–response nonlinearity. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 175 children, 150 of whom had complete data for all included covariates, attended the National Institute of Perinatology in Mexico City from 1987 through 2002. EVALUATIONS/MEASUREMENTS: We used the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children–Revised, Spanish version, to measure IQ. Blood lead (BPb) was measured by a reference laboratory of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) quality assurance program for BPb. RESULTS: Geometric mean BPb during pregnancy was 8.0 μg/dL (range, 1–33 μg/dL), from 1 through 5 years was 9.8 μg/dL (2.8–36.4 μg/dL), and from 6 through 10 years was 6.2 μg/dL (2.2–18.6 μg/dL). IQ at 6–10 years decreased significantly only with increasing natural-log third-trimester BPb (β = −3.90; 95% confidence interval, −6.45 to −1.36), controlling for other BPb and covariates. The dose–response BPb–IQ function was log-linear, not linear–linear. CONCLUSIONS: Lead exposure around 28 weeks gestation is a critical period for later child intellectual development, with lasting and possibly permanent effects. There was no evidence of a threshold; the strongest lead effects on IQ occurred within the first few micrograms of BPb. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Current CDC action limits for children applied to pregnant women permit most lead-associated child IQ decreases measured over the studied BPb range

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Estimating equations for biomarker based exposure estimation under non-steady-state conditions

Unrealistic steady-state assumptions are often used to estimate toxicant exposure rates from biomarkers. A biomarker may instead be modeled as a weighted sum of historical time-varying exposures. Estimating equations are derived for a zero-inflated gamma distribution for daily exposures with a known exposure frequency. Simulation studies suggest that the estimating equations can provide accurate estimates of exposure magnitude at any reasonable sample size, and reasonable estimates of the exposure variance at larger sample sizes

Impacts of 4D BIM on Construction Project Performance

A significant proportion of construction projects are failing to achieve their deadline finish dates. This advocate for solutions that could address the root causes of time impacting risks, leading to the use of 4D BIM for project planning. This study investigates the impacts of 4D BIM on construction projects. An exploratory sequential mixed method research was conducted to initially explore the topic via interviews and literature review, and, subsequently, the themes derived were put into questionnaires to elicit expert knowledge on a wider industry scale. The data were analysed using thematic analysis, reliability analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test and factor analysis. Across the objectives around the impacts of 4D BIM on project reliability, monitoring and diagnosis, the findings presented eight key ways the 4D BIM support project performance. Examples of component factors that were raised was planning efficiency to enhance planner output, assessment and directive with a better comparison of planned and actual progress, and thorough/comprehensive risk reflection to cover wide ranges of issues. Upon further reflection, the finding highlighted the issues of the lack of shared responsibility outside of the planner and BIM coordinator, severe lack of understanding and training regarding 4D BIM and complexity of carrying out the process effectively

Potential conservation of circadian clock proteins in the phylum Nematoda as revealed by bioinformatic searches

Although several circadian rhythms have been described in C. elegans, its molecular clock remains elusive. In this work we employed a novel bioinformatic approach, applying probabilistic methodologies, to search for circadian clock proteins of several of the best studied circadian model organisms of different taxa (Mus musculus, Drosophila melanogaster, Neurospora crassa, Arabidopsis thaliana and Synechoccocus elongatus) in the proteomes of C. elegans and other members of the phylum Nematoda. With this approach we found that the Nematoda contain proteins most related to the core and accessory proteins of the insect and mammalian clocks, which provide new insights into the nematode clock and the evolution of the circadian system.Fil: Romanowski, Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. Laboratorio de Cronobiología; ArgentinaFil: Garavaglia, Matías Javier. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. Laboratorio de Ing.genética y Biolog.molecular y Celular. Area Virus de Insectos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Goya, María Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. Laboratorio de Cronobiología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Ghiringhelli, Pablo Daniel. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. Laboratorio de Ing.genética y Biolog.molecular y Celular. Area Virus de Insectos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Golombek, Diego Andres. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. Laboratorio de Cronobiología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Integrated information increases with fitness in the evolution of animats

One of the hallmarks of biological organisms is their ability to integrate disparate information sources to optimize their behavior in complex environments. How this capability can be quantified and related to the functional complexity of an organism remains a challenging problem, in particular since organismal functional complexity is not well-defined. We present here several candidate measures that quantify information and integration, and study their dependence on fitness as an artificial agent ("animat") evolves over thousands of generations to solve a navigation task in a simple, simulated environment. We compare the ability of these measures to predict high fitness with more conventional information-theoretic processing measures. As the animat adapts by increasing its "fit" to the world, information integration and processing increase commensurately along the evolutionary line of descent. We suggest that the correlation of fitness with information integration and with processing measures implies that high fitness requires both information processing as well as integration, but that information integration may be a better measure when the task requires memory. A correlation of measures of information integration (but also information processing) and fitness strongly suggests that these measures reflect the functional complexity of the animat, and that such measures can be used to quantify functional complexity even in the absence of fitness data.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, one supplementary figure. Three supplementary video files available on request. Version commensurate with published text in PLoS Comput. Bio

Improved hospital-level risk adjustment for surveillance of healthcare-associated bloodstream infections: a retrospective cohort study

Background: To allow direct comparison of bloodstream infection (BSI) rates between hospitals for performance measurement, observed rates need to be risk adjusted according to the types of patients cared for by the hospital. However, attribute data on all individual patients are often unavailable and hospital-level risk adjustment needs to be done using indirect indicator variables of patient case mix, such as hospital level. We aimed to identify medical services associated with high or low BSI rates, and to evaluate the services provided by the hospital as indicators that can be used for more objective hospital-level risk adjustment

Regression analysis with categorized regression calibrated exposure: some interesting findings

BACKGROUND: Regression calibration as a method for handling measurement error is becoming increasingly well-known and used in epidemiologic research. However, the standard version of the method is not appropriate for exposure analyzed on a categorical (e.g. quintile) scale, an approach commonly used in epidemiologic studies. A tempting solution could then be to use the predicted continuous exposure obtained through the regression calibration method and treat it as an approximation to the true exposure, that is, include the categorized calibrated exposure in the main regression analysis. METHODS: We use semi-analytical calculations and simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach compared to the naive approach of not correcting for measurement error, in situations where analyses are performed on quintile scale and when incorporating the original scale into the categorical variables, respectively. We also present analyses of real data, containing measures of folate intake and depression, from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study (NOWAC). RESULTS: In cases where extra information is available through replicated measurements and not validation data, regression calibration does not maintain important qualities of the true exposure distribution, thus estimates of variance and percentiles can be severely biased. We show that the outlined approach maintains much, in some cases all, of the misclassification found in the observed exposure. For that reason, regression analysis with the corrected variable included on a categorical scale is still biased. In some cases the corrected estimates are analytically equal to those obtained by the naive approach. Regression calibration is however vastly superior to the naive method when applying the medians of each category in the analysis. CONCLUSION: Regression calibration in its most well-known form is not appropriate for measurement error correction when the exposure is analyzed on a percentile scale. Relating back to the original scale of the exposure solves the problem. The conclusion regards all regression models